iPhone Photo Video » Palm

First Pre, now Pixi, but same result: Palm will fail

Veit — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 15:39:25 +0000

Nothing has changed since Palm announced the Pre, except that the competitive landscape for smartphones has become even more competitive. I did not give the Pre a chance at that time and it is now clear that as predicted, it did not succeed. Since nothing has changed, I cannot see why the Pixi should succeed. Developers, the kingmakers of today, will still shun WebOS which will mean the slow death of WebOS and all of Palm’s handsets.

Pity. I still have a warm spot in my heart for Palm, but reality is their exit strategy is to be acquired. Let’s hope it will happen…

Why the Palm Pre will fail (Part 3)

Veit — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 01:04:02 +0000

Update: Sprint announced their Q2 results today. In one word: Ugly. They lost even more subscribers in Q2 than they did in the first 3 months of this year. And that’s despite selling the Palm Pre since early June. Frankly, I’m shaking my head – I would have thought the Palm had more of an impact on Sprint’s numbers than it apparently did. Sprint got to reverse this trend in Q3. Regardless of whether they manage that, the Palm Pre is still doomed in the long term. Consolidation will happen and I just cannot see Palm to survive. So it’s a matter of when, not if. Pity!

With only days to go until the release of the Palm Pre, major newspapers have now reviewed the Palm Pre. While all like the Pre as a device, many of them point out the lack of apps and lack of developer support. Just to sample a few, Walt Mossberg in his Wall Street Journal Personal Technology column sums it up nicely: “… could give the iPhone and BlackBerry strong competition — but only if it fixes its app store and can attract third-party developers.” David Pogue in his New York Times column states that “Palm intends to approve thousands more in the coming weeks, but they won’t be as diverse or powerful as the iPhone’s”. And last, but not least, Steve Wildstrom called it “A Smartphone not quite smart enough” in Business Week.

All of these reviews underscore the point I made in my post “Why the Palm Pre will fail (and thus, we will stick with the iPhonePhotoShow)” a few weeks ago: While the Pre will see a spike in sales, in the long run, Developers go where the money is. And that’s not with Palm.

If that point needs any more emphasis, consider today’s Wall Street Journal article on Adobe, where Ben Worthren writes about Adobe’s efforts to crack the smart-phone market and open it up for Adobe Flash: “… Adobe has struck alliances with chip designers and phone makers and offered millions of dollars to developers willing to write programs for mobile devices that use its software.” It takes money –a lot of money– to get the developers rallying around your product. Money that unfortunately Palm does not have.

I stick with my prediction that the Palm Pre will fail in the long run. And thus we still have no plans to do a Palm Pre Photo Show.

Why the Palm Pre will fail (Part 2)

Veit — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 17:01:42 +0000

I stick with my prediction that the Palm Pre will fail in the long run. And thus we still have no plans to do a Palm Pre Photo Show.

Why the Zune HD will fail (and thus, we will stick with the iPhone Photo Show)

Veit — Fri, 29 May 2009 19:55:54 +0000

I hope this will be the shortest article that I will ever write on this blog.

In short, all the reasons why the Palm Pre will fail also apply to the Zune HD. Actually, no matter how good the device ends up being, the Zune line itself has already failed to catch on and the Zune brand is as tainted as Vista. So the ecosystem will not abandon the iPhone and rally around Zune.

And thus we will not do a Zune HD Photo Show, either.

Why the Palm Pre will fail (and thus, we will stick with the iPhone Photo Show)

Veit — Wed, 20 May 2009 00:38:47 +0000

Sprint today announced availability and pricing of the new Palm Pre – June 6, 2009 at $199.95 after rebates.

As a former owner of at least a half-dozen Palm Pilots and Treos, I’ve always had a special spot for Palm in my heart. Thus I root for Palm and wish the Pre all the best. Alas, I don’t have hopes they succeed. And this without having even looked at the device. I don’t have to — the odds are stacked against them.

Why will they fail? Look no further than the success story of the iPhone.

When the iPhone came to market, it was a total game-changer. Something totally new from the hippest Hi-Tech brand at the time. It would not have become the success without it being the first Smartphone that got Smartphone right for many consumers. But it would not have worked that well either as the “mPhone” from Microsoft. It was a very potent combination of brand and game-changing device that gave Apple a home-run.

But that alone would have amounted only to a temporary success. In order to sustain its momentum, Apple had to bring out something new with version 2 of the iPhone. The new thing was that Apple rallied developers around the iPhone: Develop for my platform and you will not only have access to a channel (the App Store) and our Marketing prowess (Apple’s and AT&T’s print ads are very effective), you will also profit from the halo we will create around this platform (which is more than a smartphone) over the mid- and long-term. And I promise you will make money!

So where does that leave the Pre? Neither is Palm a very strong brand nor is the Pre revolutionary. I have no doubt that there will be an initial spike in sales to fans of Palm or people seeking to buy an iPhone competitor for the Sprint network. But mid-term, Palm needs to rally the developer community and build an ecosystem around the Pre. Without a constant stream of new, cool apps, they will not be successful with consumers (whom they target).

What about the developers? In short, developers go where the money is. And in mobile Smartphones, I can only see 3 to 4 platforms succeeding — commanding enough sales, channel access and brand cachet so that developers really want to spend resources developing apps for these platforms. Two of the 4 have already been decided: iPhone (mostly consumer) and RIM’s Blackberry (mostly business). For the other 1-2 spots, the front runners are Microsoft Windows for Mobile (Microsoft has the deep pockets to keep maintaining their market share, although I’m not convinced they will improve their offerings significantly), Symbian (which is huge outside of the United States, but which I see most vulnerable despite it being backed by Nokia, Sony Ericsson and others) and, probably leading this pack, Android (while not that many Android-based smartphones are out today, there’s so much money in mobile search and mobile location-based services that Google will succeed, esp. since Android is not just a Smartphone platform). Even if there were enough room for a fifth smartphone platform to succeed, I cannot see Palm succeeding against Symbian.

Where does that leave Palm with its not-so-deep pockets? I’m afraid, it will leave them in the dust. Give it three to four years and if things go well for Palm, they will be folded into one of the major players mentioned above. If not, R.I.P.

I hope the Pre will give Palm enough life to bring to market the next product it is hopefully working on. Because the Palm Pre itself will fail. And thus we will not do a Palm Pre Photo Show.