Update: If there was any doubt how serious Google is about the mobile space, check out their announcement this morning that they will release ChromeOS to compete against Windows. Google understands and is dead serious about that they need to be able to provide / own the user experience from top-to-bottom. Android is that play in mobile, Chrome OS on the PC.
Even although Nokia outrightly denied that they would abandon Symbian for Android, it certainly got people’s attention. And for good reasons.
Over the history of computing, there has never been a market that was dominated by 5 major players over an extended period of time. Do we have 5 major client operating systems today? No. Enterprise OS’es? No. 5 major databases? No. 5 major browsers? No again. With the users and the developers being the kingmakers, markets always have and continue to consolidate.
So why would we have 5 major smartphone platforms? We won’t. That is why I took the strong stance that the Palm Pre will fail. Of the 5 majors in the smartphone market, two seem to be relatively safe: Apple and RIM, maker of the Blackberry, since they target slightly different subsets of the smartphone market. Of the remaining three, Android will make it, since it is not only going to be in smartphones, but also in MIDs (Mobile Internet Devices, such as tablets, netbooks,…) Besides, Google must win in Mobile and Android is their platform to do so. Which leaves us with Symbian, which is going the open source route, but has not seen that much pickup from developers, and Microsoft, whom I cannot see walking away from this market.
Personally, I doubt that Nokia will go the Android route or that Microsoft is going to take over RIM, but that is not what matters. What matters is that the shakeout is starting and not everyone will be standing when this is over. Until then, be prepared to hear rumors, announcements, speculations and analyses. And you might just get surprised at what the outcome turns out to be.
Did you enjoy this article? Please subscribe to iPhonePhotoVideo to receive all the updates on time and for free!
Related posts:
- Nokia – Android: Is Microsoft – Blackberry next?
- Nokia ditching Symbian for Maemo and Microsoft?
- Why the Palm Pre will fail (and thus, we will stick with the iPhone Photo Show)
- With Microsoft Seadragon, you can share a photo of any size and zoom in to any detail-level
- What makes iPhone photography special?
{ 2 comments }
Overall, I think there can be 4-5 major players in this space.
Part of the debate rests on what you consider ‘major’, measured by revenue or market share, or both? For the purposes of this response, I’ll assume market share with direct revenue share not being a core concern (because of the evolution of Android and Symbian).
I agree that RIM and Apple will continue to command a major market share and revenue share of the smartphone market for some time to come–unless a bigger fish buys RIM, which is not out of the realm of possibility but is unlikely.
I think that Microsoft will continue to play a substantial role in this space, if only because it can keep buying market share and competing platforms to maintain its position. I don’t see Microsoft allowing itself to become an also-ran in this space.
Symbian is, I think, the platform that could be in the most likelihood of being relegated to the ‘minor’ leagues of smartphone OSes. Nokia still has a commanding market share in the smartphone space, but is losing market share to Apple quickly. Moreover, it doesn’t seem to capture the popular imagination the way Apple does, or the enterprise imagination the way RIM does.
I also agree that Google’s Android will achieve a somewhat smaller middle-tier share of the market in smartphones. But Google doesn’t have to get as big a share as Apple or RIM does to benefit unequally in financial terms. Consider that Google’s strategy and revenue model are likely quite different from Microsoft, Symbian, Palm, or even Apple: Google needs to get as many people using the web on mobile devices as possible, so that they in turn will use Google search and other ad-based services. So, Google can deliver its OS as a loss-leader, undercutting all competitors and still succeed.
And, ultimately, the Android platform will attract lots of developers because of the inherent revenue model that Google can bring to the table. It may take a while, but Android will eventually have an application ecosystem that is only second to Apple’s.
The carriers will like Android because it is accessible to them and third parties, and can be populated cheaply or freely with a ready-made suite of Google-designed apps (in addition to whatever is downloaded from third parties). Google Wave will be used very prominently and successfully on Android phones.
Unlike some of the other markets you mentioned, Veit, the smartphone market is measured in billions of units over the next 5 years. That’s a big enough space for even 10 major OSes to compete, much less 5. Longer-term, you’re probably right, but I don’t see it going to less than 4 in the next 5 years. It’s just too lucrative. If a ‘mid-tier’ player can get 50-75 million handsets, that’s big by any measurement both currently and historically.
It’s not clear to me, though, that Google’s long-term success in the smartphone OS market is guaranteed any more than Microsoft’s was when it entered the market.
Joe,
We agree on RIM and Apple and you made the Android case more eloquently than I could have. The only potential problem with Android (or any other mobile OS that becomes ubiquitous) is that carrier might loathe them, since it will allow users to switch easily. But then, they can always layer some proprietary stuff on top of it.
Nokia: Symbian is not doing well. Pickup of open source Symbian is slow. Nokia will cling to it (Symbian would be dead without them), but for how long, esp. once the developers are moving on to Android? Users will follow – not because they care about the OS, but all the important and cool apps are there, plus there is choice of apps, not just one of each kind. If Android shines and users want it, carriers will give it to them. So can Nokia out-Android Google through Symbian? I just don’t see them having the money or being willing to spend it.
On Microsoft, I agree – MSFT will stay around. The question is in what form? Will they stick to Windows Mobile and pay for every customer they acquire? What will their shareholders say? Or will they acquire Palm to get WinOS? Or get Symbian (and risk developers leaving since they all know what Microsoft will do to “open source” software). Or will they be bold and try to acquire RIM? Or pull something else out of their hat? MSFT will be the fun space to watch.
As to when – it depends solely on Android. The quicker they move, the more the others are under pressure to get their act together. I would not be surprised to see Microsoft make a bold move in the next 12 months, and for Symbian to be slowly loosing share and drift off over the next years (not year).
Comments on this entry are closed.